CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-16T04:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-16T04:24ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44676/-1
CME Note: Large CME first seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-02-16T04:24Z. This CME is also seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C3 and as a partial halo in STEREO A COR2 with the bulk to the E. The CME is also seen to the E in GOES CCOR-1, but the majority of its propagation is obscured by Earth-shine. There appears to be some northward deflection very early in the propagation of the CME in the SOHO LASCO C2 FOV. The source of this CME is associated with an occulted M2.4 flare from beyond the E limb (~S10) that peaked at 2026-02-16T04:35Z. The associated eruption and ejecta can be seen across SDO AIA wavelengths, but the flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131. No clear arrival signature seen in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-19T03:16Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 32.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-02-17T18:21Z
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